石羊河流域初始水权分配模型研究

针对石羊河流域开发利用状况,按照水权的动态变化特性,将石羊河流域水权的演变分为历史水权、现状水权与未来水权。在分析流域历史水权形成的基础上,选择应用较为广泛的层次分析法(AHP)以及综合指标的筛选原则,建立了基于AHP的石羊河流域初始水权分配模型。该模型涉及社会、经济、资源、技术和管理等方面,以石羊河流域初始水权分配为对象,建立了一种半结构化、多层次、多目标的水资源合理配置指标体系。计算结果表明,该模型在石羊河流域现状水权分配中,与甘肃省水利厅制定的分水方案基本一致,具有一定的可行性。结合对2010年各项评价指标的科学预测,再次应用该模型,通过专家打分,对流域未来初始水权的分配进行了尝试。

Study on allocation model of Shiyang River basin

According to the dynamic characteristics of water rights and the conditions of Shiyang River basin,the evolvement of water rights is divided into historical water rights,present water rights and future water rights.By analyzing the formation of historical water rights,this paper used AHP method,combined with the principles of index screening and built an initial water rights allocation model in Shiyang river basin.The model involved many aspects such as society,economy,resources,technology,management etc.We developed a semi-structure,multi-clayer and multi-object index system of Shiyang River basin water rights allocation.The results from the model are approximately consisting with the distribution amount of Water by the Gansu Water Conservancy Department in 2005; it is feasible to allocate initial water rights of Shiyang river basin.Therefore,we use the model again,with the predicted results of indexes in Shiyang River basin in 2010,through the method of expert estimation,we can get future water rights allocation proportion and the distribution amount,this can be used as a guidance for basin sustainable development.