新疆耕地资源态势演变分析

利用1996～2005年土地变更调查数据和社会经济统计数据,分析了新疆近年来耕地态势演变、区域差异及其生态环境效应,并运用灰色关联分析研究了新疆耕地变化的社会经济驱动因子.结果表明:近年来新疆耕地数量呈波动变化态势,总量稍有增加,但人均耕地占有量呈逐年下降的趋势;耕地数量变化区域差异明显,且产生了不良的生态环境效应.人口增长及城镇化是耕地变化的首要驱动因子,农业发展与农业结构调整、经济发展及政策因素对耕地变化也具有重要驱动作用.研究对新疆农业可持续发展有重要意义.

Analysis on the Situational Development of Cultivated Land Resource in Xinjiang

According to the data of land use change and the relational statistical data in Xinjiang from 1996 to 2005,this paper analyzed thes cultivated land,developmental situation regional social differences and eco-environmental effect.Also,the Grey Relation was applied to analyze the mechanism of the social economic driving factors.The results of this study were as follows:1.In recent years the quantity of cultivated land in Xinjiang has assumed the undulation change trend;the total quantity slightly increased.The cultivated land per capita had showed a successively declining trend and regional differences of cultivated land were very notable;2.These changes have had a negative eco-environmental effect;3.The growth of population and urbanization were the first driving factor that cause thes cultivated land of Xinjiang to change.The agricultural structures adjustment and rapid social economic development were also important driving factor.Furthermore,policy and authority factors also have significant effect on the variation.The analysis results and conclusions of this paper will provide scientific basis for sustainable agricultural development in Xinjiang.