海南冬季主要瓜菜寒害风险区划

基于自然灾害风险分析原理,利用海南岛18个市县历年逐日气象要素、瓜菜产量、面积、寒害灾情和DEM等资料,构建基于瓜菜生物学特性的寒害致灾等级指标,综合寒害致灾危险性、孕灾敏感性、承灾体易损性和防灾能力,评估海南岛冬季瓜菜寒害风险。结果表明:西瓜冬季寒害危险性从中部向东西减小,豇豆和丝瓜冬季寒害危险性从南向北加重,辣椒冬季寒害危险性从东南向西北增加,瓜菜不同等级寒害风险概率分布形式差异明显;瓜菜冬季寒害孕灾环境敏感性从中部五指山地区向周围低海拔区降低;瓜菜冬季寒害灾损风险和防灾能力在区域上存在明显差异。瓜菜冬季寒害综合风险分布形式总体一致,中部和北部高、南部和东西部沿海低。这种寒害风险分布主要受海南冷空气活动和地形因素作用,与实际寒害发生规律一致。

Winter chilling damage risk zoning for watermelon and vegetables in the Hainan Island

The Hainan Island, a vital agricultural zone in winter for watermelon and vegetables in China, often suffers from chilling risk during production. Using natural disaster risk analysis theory, data on daily meteorology, crop yield and planted area of watermelon and vegetables as well as chilling disaster and DEM, the paper constructed the chilling grade index in accordance with the biological characteristics of watermelon and vegetables, and built a comprehensive model integrating hazard index, damage environment index, damage loss index and damage prevention capability index to assess chilling risk of watermelon and vegetables in the Hainan Island. The results showed that hazard index for watermelon decreased from the central part to the east and west of the Hainan Island. It increased from south to north for cowpea and luffa, and increased from southeast to northwest for paprika. Furthermore, distribution of various grades of hazard index was different. Damage environment index reduced from central Wuzhishan Mountain to the peripheral regions. Chilling damage loss index and prevention capability index differed in different regions. Overall, the comprehensive chilling risk index was similar in zoning for watermelon and vegetables, and was higher in the center and north while lower in the south, east and west coastal areas. The characteristics of chilling risk distribution, mainly induced by cold air action and topography, conformed to real chilling conditions in the Hainan Island. The results provided useful information that contributed to better understanding of chilling disaster risk of watermelon and vegetables in the Hainan Island. The results were also useful for policy formation on disaster risk management in the Hainan Island.