近40年来三峡库区农村人口与居民点用地演变脱钩及驱动效应分析

三峡库区是以山地和丘陵为主而组成的独特的移民与生态敏感地理单元，库区农村居民点因受自然条件影响及人类活动的双重扰动，具有利用形态特殊性和驱动机制复杂性等特征。该研究基于人地关系视角，构建分析框架，采用核密度、Tapio脱钩模型和对数平均迪式指数分解法（LMDI，Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index），分析三峡库区1980-2019年农村人口与农村居民点用地演变脱钩及驱动因素，揭示了库区人口变动与农村居民点演变的作用关系，为协调库区人地关系，完善库区国土空间治理提供依据。结果表明：1）近40 a来，库区农村人口与农村居民点用地变化趋势相反。1980－2019年间，三峡库区农村人口持续减少，近40 a净减少714.75万人，同期库区农村居民点用地净增加11 992.88 hm2，农村居民点用地面积增加主要来源于耕地占用。2）研究区衰退负脱钩和强负脱钩是农村居民点和农村人口动态变化的主要状态，1990－2000年及2000－2010年农村人口和农村居民点的强负脱钩区县数比2010-2019年和1980-1990年多，农村居民点用地规模伴随着农村人口的减少，不减反增趋势明显，农村人口与农村居民点规模严重失衡。3）城镇化效应和利用集约度效应为增量效应，正向促进了农村居民点规模的扩张，而城乡人口结构效应是抑制农村居民点规模扩张的主导因素，区域总人口效应在1980－1985年间与2000－2019年间促进了农村居民点扩张，1985－2000年间抑制了农村居民点扩张，农村居民点规模扩张主要受居民点集约利用粗放的影响，区域总人口效应为减量效应的区县主要位于中部及东部区县，明显受库区移民使人口流出的影响。

Decoupling of rural population and settlement in the Three Gorges Reservoir areas in the past 40 years and its driving effect

The Three Gorges Reservoir area is characterized by ecologically sensitive, low mountains and hills in the world. The Three Gorges Reservoir area is also known as an immigration area. The rural residential lands are dominated by both natural conditions and human activities. As a result, there are special utilization form and complex driving mechanisms in this area. This study aims to reveal the functional relationship between the rural population change in the reservoir area and rural residential land evolution. From the perspective of the man-land relationship, an analysis framework was also constructed using the kernel density, Tapio decoupling model, and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method. A systematic investigation was made to determine the decoupling and driving factors of the rural population and rural residential land evolution from 1980 to 2019. The results show that: 1) There was the opposite change trend of the rural population and rural residential land. The rural population continued to decrease, with a net decrease of 7.147,500 people over the past 40 years. By contrast, the rural residential land increased by 11992.88 hm2 during the same period. The ever-increasing areas of rural residential land mainly originated from the occupation of cultivated land by construction land. 2) The negative and strong negative decoupling from recession were the main dynamic changes in rural settlements and rural populations in the study area. The number of counties with a strong negative decoupling of the rural population and rural settlements in 1990-2000 and 2000-2010 was more than that in 2010-2019 and 1980-1990. The scale of rural residential land was accompanied by a decrease in the rural population. There was an outstanding trend of increasing rather than decreasing. A serious unbalance was also found in the scale of the rural population and rural residential areas. 3) There was the incremental effect of urbanization and utilization intensity, indicating the positive promotion in the scale expansion of rural residential areas. The urban-rural population structure was the dominant factor to inhibit the scale expansion of rural residential areas. The regional total population promoted the expansion of rural residential areas from 1980 to 1985 and from 2000 to 2019. Nevertheless, the expansion of rural residential areas was inhibited from 1985 to 2000. Therefore, the scale expansion of rural residential areas depended mainly on the intensive and extensive use of rural residential areas. The regions and counties with the decreasing effect of the regional total population were located mainly in the central and eastern regions. It infers that there was a significant influence of the population outflow caused by the migration from the reservoir area. The finding can provide the basic ideas to coordinate the man-land relationship for the better management of territorial space.