甘肃省环县农户肉羊养殖意愿影响因素分析

基于甘肃省环县5个乡镇的调研数据，运用二元Logit模型对农户养殖意愿的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明:劳动力人数、是否有充足的饲草料、自然环境、养殖年限、肉羊品种、政府补贴和肉羊价格对农户养殖意愿有显著的正向影响，其中劳动力人数、自然因素、肉羊品种和肉羊价格对农户养殖意愿影响最为显著，疫病风险对农户养殖意愿有显著负向影响。提出应增加牧草产量保险、提升农户在销售过程中的话语权和议价能力、提高农户养殖意识和鼓励发展新型养殖户等建议，希望更多农户参与肉羊养殖产业，促进农户增产增收，推进环县肉羊产业现代化发展。 

Influencing Factors Analysis of Farmers′ Willingness to Mutton Sheep Breeding in Huanxian County of Gansu Province

Based on survey data of five towns and villages in Huanxian County of Gansu Province，combined with development status of mutton sheep in Huanxian County，the binary Logit model was used to conduct an empirical analysis on influencing factors of farmers′ breeding willingness.Results showed that，number of labor force，whether there was sufficient fodder，natural environment，breeding years，mutton sheep breeds，government subsidies and mutton sheep price had a significant positive impact on farmers′ breeding willingness，among which number of labor force，natural factors，mutton sheep breeds and mutton sheep price had the most significant impact on farmers′ breeding willingness.Disease risk had a significant negative effect on farmers′ breeding willingness.To make more farmers participate in the mutton sheep breeding industry，promote farmers to increase production and income，and promote modernization development of mutton sheep industry in Huanxian County，the government should strengthen insurance subsidies for forage grass，enhance discourse power and bargaining power of farmers in sales process，improve farmers′ awareness of breeding and other relevant suggestions.