基于水足迹理论的县域农业用水评价及影响因素分析

水资源是一个地区发展的基础和重要保障，对区域水资源进行评价与分析研究，对于制定合理的水资源战略有重要的意义。利用水足迹理论，对甘肃省景泰县的农业水足迹进行了结构分析、时空变化分析和水足迹综合影响因子分析和评价。水足迹结构变化分析显示，景泰县农业水足迹2010—2019年整体上总量呈现不断增长的变化趋势，其中经济作物水足迹最高，畜产品水足迹次之，粮食作物水足迹最低；从2010—2019年农业水足迹增长变化来看，粮食作物水足迹增加了102％，畜产品水足迹增加了38％，经济作物水足迹增加了22％。农业水足迹空间变化分析结果显示，2010—2019年景泰县农业水足迹从东向西转移，农业水资源消耗重心由东向西转移；各乡镇农业水足迹增长型主要为景泰县西部区域，下降型为中东部地区，波动型区域为东北部地区。主成分影响因素分析结果显示，第1主成分影响贡献率高达64.997％，第2主成分和第3主成分分别为11.333％、10.504％，说明经济因素和农业生产因素对于景泰县的农业水足迹影响最大，而气候因素和人口因素影响相对较低。未来景泰县需从调整农业结构出发，发展高水效农业，促进区域农业水资源可持续利用。 

Evaluation and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Water in a County Based on Water Footprint TheoryTaking Jingtai County of Gansu Province as an Example

Water resources are foundation and important guarantee for development of a region, evaluation and analysis of regional water resources is of great significance for formulation of a reasonable water resources strategy．Water footprint theory was introduced and structural analysis, spatial and temporal change analysis and comprehensive impact factor analysis and evaluation of agricultural water footprint of Jingtai County were carried out．Analysis of structural changes of water footprint showed that, total agricultural water footprint of Jingtai County as a whole showed a growing trend from 2010 to 2019, among which water footprint of cash crops was the highest, water footprint of livestock products was the second highest, and water footprint of food crops was the lowest．From 2010 to 2019, water footprint of food crops increased by 102%, water footprint of livestock products increased by 38%, and water footprint of cash crops increased by 22%．Analysis results of spatial change of agricultural water footprint showed that, between 2010 and 2019, agricultural water footprint of Jingtai County showed a shift from east to west, and center of gravity of agricultural water consumption shifted from east to west．Growth type of agricultural water footprint of each township was mainly in the western region of Jingtai County, decline type was in the central and eastern region, fluctuating type was in the northeast region．Principal component influence factor analysis results showed that, the first principal component influence contribution rate was as high as 64.997%, while the second and third principal components were 11.333% and 10.504% respectively．It showed that agricultural water footprint of Jingtai County was mainly influenced by the first principal component factors, with economic factors and agricultural production factors having the greatest influence on agricultural water footprint of Jingtai County, which were main influencing factors; followed by the second and third principal component influencing factors, which were climatic factors and demographic factors respectively, with relatively low influence．There is more room for improvement in the use of agricultural water resources in Jingtai County．Starting from structure and influencing factors of agricultural water footprint, specific influencing factors were analyzed to adjust agricultural structure and promote sustainable use of regional agricultural water resources.