| 青岛市生猪价格波动规律及成因探究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李杨,诸葛泰阳,鹿永华.青岛市生猪价格波动规律及成因探究[J].农业工程,2022,12(10):145-150. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李杨 诸葛泰阳 鹿永华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.青岛农业大学经济管理学院（合作社学院），山东 青岛 266109 |
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| 基金项目： | 山东省现代农业产业技术体系小麦产业技术体系产业经济岗位专家项目（SDAIT-01-13） |
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| 摘 要： | 为探究青岛市生猪产业的发展趋势，利用季节调整、H-P滤波等定量方法分析青岛市近10年的生猪价格波动特征，利用多元回归模型及1阶AR（1）模型实证分析供需两大方面因素对生猪价格波动产生的影响。结果表明，青岛市生猪价格波动呈现明显的周期性和季节性，主要受供给层面的影响，同时青岛市2022年下半年生猪价格会出现阶段性反弹，但总体幅度不会太大，并且在未来几年生猪价格将恢复正常，并继续升高。
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| 关 键 词： | 生猪价格 规律 成因 价格预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-04-29 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022-06-27 |
Study on the law and causes of pig price fluctuation in Qingdao |
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| liyang,zhugetaiyang and luyonghua.Study on the law and causes of pig price fluctuation in Qingdao[J].Agricultural Engineering,2022,12(10):145-150. |
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| Authors: | liyang zhugetaiyang and luyonghua |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Economics and Management （College of Cooperative），Qingdao Agricultural University， Qingdao Shandong 266109，China2.Editorial Department of Journal of Qingdao Agricultural University，Qingdao Shandong 266109， China |
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| Abstract: | To explore development trend of Qingdao pig industry, seasonal adjustment and H-P filtering were used to analyze characteristics of pig price fluctuations in Qingdao in the past ten years． A multiple regression model and a first-order AR（1）model were also used to analyze empirically influence of two major factors, supply and demand, on fluctuation of pig prices and degree of influence． Results showed that pig price fluctuation in Qingdao was obviously cyclical and seasonal, and was mainly influenced by supply side, while pig price in Qingdao would rebound in the second half of 2022, but overall magnitude was not too large, and pig price would return to normal and continue to rise in next few years． |
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| Keywords: | Pig price Fluctuation pattern Causes of fluctuation Price forecast |
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