Effect of climate change on Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut: A life table approach

Investigations were conducted to understand the direct effects of rising temperature and the host-mediated effects of elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) on Spodoptera litura (Fabricius) (Noctuidae: Lepidoptera). This study involved i. the construction of life tables of S. litura at six constant temperatures viz., 20, 25, 27, 30, 33 and 35°C ± 0.5 °C reared on peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) grown under eCO₂ (550 ppm) concentration in open top chambers ii. Estimation of threshold temperatures and thermal constants and iii. Prediction of the pest scenarios during near and distant future climate change periods. Significantly lower leaf nitrogen, higher carbon and a higher relative proportion of carbon to nitrogen (C:N) were observed in peanut foliage grown under eCO₂ over ambient CO₂ (aCO₂). The mean development time (days) of each stage, egg, larva, pupa, pre-oviposition and total life span decreased from 20 to 35 °C temperature on eCO₂ foliage. The thermal requirement of S. litura from egg to egg (within the range of 20 °C–35 °C) was 538.5 DD on eCO₂ as against 494.5 DD on aCO₂ foliage. Finite (λ) and intrinsic rates of increase (r_m), net reproductive rate (R_o), mean generation time (T) and doubling time (DT) of S. litura varied significantly with temperature and CO₂ and were found to have quadratic relationships with temperature. The present results on life table parameters estimated by the bootstrap technique showed that the ‘r_m’ values of S. litura on eCO₂ foliage were higher than those in the literature indicating a significant influence of eCO₂. The reduction of ‘T’ was noticed from a maximum of 50 days at 20 °C to minimum of 22 days at 35 °C and ‘λ’ which is the indicator of reproductive value of new eggs was highest at 35 °C and showed a negative relationship with temperature. The data on these life table parameters were plotted against temperature and two non-linear models developed for both CO₂ conditions and used for predicting the pest scenarios. Prediction of pest scenarios based on PRECIS A1B emission scenario data at eleven peanut growing locations of the country during near future (NF) and distant future (DF) climate change periods showed an increase of ‘r_m’ and ‘λ’ with varied ‘R_o’ and reduced ‘T’. The present results indicate that temperature and CO₂ are vital in influencing the growth and life table parameters of S. litura and that pest incidence is likely to be higher in the future.