宁夏粮食产量主要影响因子分析

通过对可能影响宁夏回族自治区17个县粮食产量的19个因子进行主成分分析,选出了影响当地粮食产量的6个主要因子,对这6个因子进行多元线性回归分析,建立了多元线性回归统计模型;同时采用通径分析方法对这19个因子进行分析,再与多元线性回归分析结果综合得到结论,二者有很好的相通性,但通径分析方法的结果更全面,不仅能得到各因子对粮食产量的直接影响程度,还可分析到其间接影响效果。综合结果表明:各因子对粮食产量的直接作用大小顺序依次为有效灌溉面积、氮肥、粮食作物播种面积、农用机械总动力、复合肥、磷肥,从间接因素看,除了粮食作物播种面积以外,其它各因子通过有效灌溉面积对粮食产量均有较大的间接作用。

Analysis on Main Factors that Affected Food Production in Ningxia Province

Based on the principal components analysis,19 factors influencing food production is analyzed in 17 counties of Ningxia province,China.The 6 main factors among 19 influencing factors are used to establish multivariate linear regression model.This paper used path analysis to analyze 19 influencing factors as well.The results of the two methods are similar.However,the path analysis method is more general than the regression method since this method can not only analyze the direct influence of every factor,but also can get the indirect influence.The result indicates that the order of direct factors influencing food production is as followed: the effective irrigated area,nitrogenous fertilizer,food-sown area,agricultural machinery forces,compound fertilizers,and phosphate fertilizer.By indirect influence factors,it is indicated that all factors have indirect influence upon food production through the effective irrigated area except food-sown area.