Assessing biological recovery of acid-sensitive lakes in Ontario,Canada

Information on breeding waterfowl, habitat and food chains, gathered from acid-sensitive lakes in Ontario, was used to develop a model of effects of acid deposition on waterfowl and their response to predicted sulphur dioxide (SO₂ emission reductions in eastern North America. The Waterfowl Acidification Response Modelling System (WARMS) is composed of an acidification model linked to fish and waterfowl models. WARMS uses pH, area, dissolved organic carbon, total phosphorus, and presence of fish to calculate estimates of pre-acidification, present and eventual steady-state values for pH, fish presence and waterfowl breeding parameters under proposed SO₂ emission scenarios. We used WARMS to estimate chemical and biotic responses to scenarios simulated in three regions of Ontario where biomonitoring studies are underway. For pH and fish presence, WARMS predicts the greatest improvements in the highly damaged Sudbury region, slight improvements in Algoma, and that the strongest proposed emission reductions will be required to maintain current conditions in Muskoka. For waterfowl, species-specific differences are evident among regions. We discuss implications of these assessments of biological recovery for watersheds in eastern Canada.