灌区自然供水条件下的水资源短缺风险模型及应用

以河南省陆浑灌区1970—2013年的年降水量和年参考作物腾发量为基础,运用Frank Copula函数构建了灌区自然供水条件下的水资源短缺风险模型,并对灌区自然供水条件下的水资源供需联合分布和组合遭遇概率进行了分析。结果表明,Frank Copula函数能较好地模拟降水量与ET_0之间的相依关系,所构建的联合分布模型能很好地描述降水量与ET_0的联合概率分布特性;不同量级年降水量和年ET_0的2类联合分布概率可通过该模型进行耦合量化。

Risk Model of Water Resources Shortage under the Condition of Natural Water Supply and Its Application in Irrigation District

Based on the annual measured rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration(ET0)data series from 1970 to 2013 at the Luhun irrigation district,the risk model of water resources shortage under the condition of natural water supply at the Luhun irrigation district was established through Frank Copula function method,the joint distribution and encountered probability of combination events of supply and demand of water resources un-der the condition of natural water supply were calculated and analyzed.The results showed that the relationship between rainfall and ET0 could be well described by the application of Frank Copula function and the joint distri-bution model based on Frank Copula function was feasible for the joint probability of rainfall and ET0 in irriga-tion district.The two joint probability categories of different combination events between rainfall and ET0 could be qualified by the application of the model.