基于完全分解模型的安徽省用水变化驱动效应测度与分析

为了探索安徽省用水变化驱动效应,采用完全分解模型,从人口、经济增长、技术进步、结构变动4层面对用水变化驱动效应进行了测算。结果表明,(1)经济增长对用水变化具有正向驱动作用,是用水增加的主导因素,2001—2014年,共贡献了472.26亿m~3用水,增量效应高达819.75%;(2)人口、技术进步、产业结构变动对用水变化具有抑制作用,其中,以技术进步因素最显著,2001—2014年,技术进步共减少用水333.87亿m3,减量效应达到579.53%,结构变动因素次之,考察样本期,共减少用水量78.4亿m~3,减量效应为136.09%,人口变动因素影响不大,减量效应仅为4.13%;(3)在人口、经济增长、技术进步、结构变动因素共同作用下,年均增加用水4.43亿m~3,若按惯性发展模式,2020年用水将增至298.67亿m~3,远超政府设定的270.84亿m~3红线目标。基于研究结果,提出了大力发展节水型现代农业,积极对传统工业进行节水技术改造,强化第三产业节水型器具推广,着力提升以现代服务业为主的第三产业比重等政策建议。

Measurement and Analysis of Driving Effects of Water Utilization Change in Anhui Province Based on Complete Decomposition Model

In order to explore the driving mechanism for water utilization in Anhui,a complete decomposition model was used to measure the driving mechanism for water utilization changes on the levels of population growth,economic development,technical progress and structural change.The results indicated that,firstly,economic development imposed a positive driving function on water utilization change,which was also a primary factor accounting for the increase of water utilization.During the period from 2001 to 2014,47.226 billion cubicmeters of water was used due to the economic growth,with the increment effect up to 819.75％.Secondly,population growth,technical progress and industrial structure change had inhibitory effects on water utilization,in which the technical progress played a most remarkable role.From 2001 to 2014,33.387 billion cubic meter of water util ization was reduced owing to technical progress,with the decrement effect up to 579.53％.The role of change in industrial structure was less significant,and totally 33.387 billion cubic meter of water was saved,with the decrement effect of 136.09％.Population growth imposed little effect on the change of water utilization,with the decrement effect of only 4.13％.Finally,under the combined action of population change,economic growth,technical progress and structural change,the annual average increase of water utilization was 443 million cubic meters.According to the inertial development mode,water utilization will be increased to 29.867 billion cubic meters by 2020,which will far exceed the red-line goal of 27.84 billion cubic meters of water utilization set by the provincial government.Based on the above-described research results,a series of policy suggestions was proposed such as vigorously developing the water-saving modern agriculture,actively modifying the water-saving techniques in traditional industry,strengthening the popularization of water-saving implements in tertiary industry and enhancing the ratio of the tertiary industry in which modern service industry plays a dominant role.