Responses of crop yield and water use efficiency to climate change in the North China Plain

Based on future climate change projections offered by IPCC, the responses of yields and water use efficiencies of wheat and maize to climate change scenarios are explored over the North China Plain. The climate change projections of 21st century under A2A, B2A and A1B are from HadCM3 global climate model.A climate generator (CLIGEN) is applied to generate daily weather data of selected stations and then the data is used to drive CERES-Wheat and Maize models. The impacts of increased temperature and CO₂ on wheat and maize yields are inconsistent. Under the same scenario, wheat yield ascended due to climatic warming, but the maize yield descended. As a more probable scenario, climate change under B2A is moderate relative to A2A and A1B. Under B2A in 2090s, average wheat yield and maize yield will respectively increase 9.8% and 3.2% without CO₂ fertilization in this region. High temperature not only affects crop yields, but also has positive effect on water use efficiencies, mainly ascribing to the evapotranspiration intensification. There is a positive effect of CO₂ enrichment on yield and water use efficiency. If atmospheric CO₂ concentration reaches nearly 600 ppm, wheat and maize yields will increase 38% and 12% and water use efficiencies will improve 40% and 25% respectively, in comparison to those without CO₂ fertilization. However, the uncertainty of crop yield is considerable under future climate change scenarios and whether the CO₂ fertilization may be realized is still needed further research.