上海市青浦区土地利用时空格局模拟研究

基于CLUE-S 模型，结合区域总体规划和生态保护红线管控方案，对青浦区进行了2040 年土地利用格局模拟预测，最后从最小累积阻力模型出发，对其生态阻力进行了比较分析，结论如下：（1）对CLUE-S模型适用性进行验证，经过计算，Kappa 精度达到95%以上，表明CLUE-S模型在青浦区具有良好的土地利用格局模拟能力；（2）青浦区土地利用格局空间差异显著，工业用地、交通用地、居住地、城市绿地和林地的面积增加，农业用地和水域的面积有所减少；（3）生态保护红线约束下，青浦东部地区生态阻力减小，西部地区保持稳定，土地利用空间格局变化更趋于合理。结论可为青浦区未来土地利用规划、管理及政策制定等提供参考依据和决策支持。

Simulation Study on Land Use Spatio-temporal Pattern in Qingpu District, Shanghai

Based on the CLUE-S model, combined with region total planning and　ecological protection red line, with an aim to predict the land use pattern in 2040 of the Qingpu District, Shanghai. At last, from the angle of minimum cumulative resistance, the ecological resistance was　compared and analyzed. The results are as follows. (1) To verify, the applicability of CLUE-S model in the study area, the accuracy test index of Kappa calculated and its value reached 95%, indicating the CLUE-S has good reliability in the study area. (2) Land use spatial pattern difference is significant, by 2040, Industrial land, traffic land, residential land, urban green land, forest land, cultivated land and other land present a decreasing trend. (3) Under the ecological protection red line constraint scenario, the ecology resistance of east Qingpu decreases, and the western region remain stable. With time, the land use spatial pattern changes tend to be more reasonable. The study conclusions will provide data reference and basic information of decision support for region future land use planning,management and policy-making.