| 贵州省人口增长及经济发展对耕地资源的影响实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李旭东.贵州省人口增长及经济发展对耕地资源的影响实证研究[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(14):7712-7716. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李旭东 |
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| 作者单位： | 贵州师范大学地理与环境科学学院,贵州贵阳,550001 |
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| 基金项目： | 贵州省教育厅硕士点项目，贵州师范大学博士基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据贵州省1978～2007年的统计资料,运用协整分析与Granger因果关系检验法对其经济发展、人口增长与耕地资源之间动态关系进行了计量分析,结果表明：①贵州耕地数量与人口、固定资产投资及GDP都是非平稳的时间序列,它们之间存在协整关系,且人口、固定资产投资及GDP是耕地数量变化的单向Granger原因;②人口增长、固定资产投资及GDP增长是其耕地减少的重要驱动力,尤其与人口的关系更为密切。因此,走耕地资源可持续发展的道路,关键在于控制人口数量,并采取多样化的措施提高经济发展质量、加强耕地质量保护,集约利用土地以提高耕地的经济产出能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 人口增长 经济发展 耕地资源 贵州省 |
Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Population Growth and Economic Development on Cultivated Land Resources in Guizhou Province |
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| LI Xu-dong.Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Population Growth and Economic Development on Cultivated Land Resources in Guizhou Province[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2010,38(14):7712-7716. |
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| Authors: | LI Xu-dong |
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| Institution: | LI Xu-dong (School of Geography and Environmental Science,Guizhou Normal University,Guiyang,Guizhou 550001) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the statistical data in Guizhou Province from 1978 to 2007,the dynamic relationships among cultivated land resources,economic development and population growth were analyzed by using the method of co-integration analysis and Granger causality test. The results showed that the variables of cultivated land quantity and economic development,population growth,fixed asset investment were non-stationary time series. A co-integration relation was found among cultivated land resources,economic development ... |
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| Keywords: | Population growth Economic development Cultivated land resources Guizhou Province |
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