基于生态足迹的江苏省生态安全研究及预测

依据2000~2010年《江苏统计年鉴》,从生态足迹模型出发,通过对2001~2009年江苏省人均生态足迹及人均生态承载力的分析,测算了人均生态赤字及生态足迹压力指数,进而判断生态安全等级,对江苏省生态安全状况进行了客观评价;运用GM（1,1）灰色数列模型对2010~2014年江苏省的生态安全状况进行了预测,研究表明,未来5年里,江苏省的人均生态赤字及生态足迹压力指数分别以年均4.0%和3.7%的速度增长,生态状况处于极不安全状态。为了实现江苏省生态安全与经济的协调发展,提出严格控制人口数量的增长、合理利用土地资源、加强生态恢复和建设等对策。

Research and Prediction of Ecologcal Security in Jiangsu Province Based on the Ecological Footprint

According to the 2000-2010 Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook,per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological carrying capacity in Jiangsu Province in the years 2001-2009 are analyzed starting from the ecological footprint model.Per capita ecological deficit is measured,as well as the pressure index of ecological footprint in order to judge the level of ecological safety and to objectively evaluate the ecological security of Jiangsu Province.GM(1,1) grey forecasting mode is used to forecast the ecological security of Jiangsu Province in the years 2010-2014.Research shows that in the next 5 years,both the per capita ecological footprint and the pressure index of ecological footprint will increase by 4% and 3.7% each year,respectively.And the ecological status in Jiangsu Province will be extremely unsafe.To achieve the coordinated development of ecological security and economy of Jiangsu Province,we should strictly control the population growth,rationally utilize the land resources,and strengthen the ecological restoration and construction.