| 临安市森林资源消耗量的灰色系统建模 |
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| 引用本文： | 余永清,王胜奎,付顺华. 临安市森林资源消耗量的灰色系统建模[J]. 浙江林业科技, 2002, 22(1): 38-40,50 |
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| 作者姓名： | 余永清 王胜奎 付顺华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江林学院信息工程与基础科学系,临安,311300
2. 浙江林学院资源与环境系,临安,311300 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用灰色系统建模理论与方法，以临安市１９８５～１９９９年森林资源消耗量为时间序列数据，建立ＧＭ（１，１）消耗预测模型为： 回测的最大误差为６．７％，平均误差４．７％，回测精度较高。预测模型经后验差比检验：Ｃ＝０．００３３＜０．３５，小误差频率检验：Ｐ＝１＞０．９５，模型精度为Ⅰ级（表３参４）。
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| 关 键 词： | 森林资源消耗量 灰色系统理论 微分方程 预测模型 森林资源调查 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-3776(2002)01-0038-03 |
Modeling by Grey System of Forest Resource Consumption in Lin''''an |
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| YU Yong-qing ,WANG Sheng-kui ,FU Shun-hua. Modeling by Grey System of Forest Resource Consumption in Lin''''an[J]. Journal of Zhejiang Forestry Science and Technology, 2002, 22(1): 38-40,50 |
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| Authors: | YU Yong-qing WANG Sheng-kui FU Shun-hua |
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| Affiliation: | YU Yong-qing 1,WANG Sheng-kui 1,FU Shun-hua 2 |
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| Abstract: | Taking forest consumption of Lin'an, Zhejiang province from 1985 to 1999 as time series data, a forecating model was established with GM(1, 1); X(1) (K+1) = 996.44 e0.030414-9996.44, the maximal error was 6.7%, the average one 4.7% showing high accuracy. The posterior error test showed that c=0.0033<0.35, error frequency P=1>0.95, and the accuracy of the model was grade one. |
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| Keywords: | forest resource consumption grey system forecast |
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