西宁市耕地利用变化及其驱动力研究

以西宁市地区为例,以耕地为研究对象,运用特尔斐法、相关分析和主成分分析法对2000～2008年耕地数量变化相关的社会、经济、农业驱动力进行定量分析,并将定量分析结果与专家对西宁市以往的研究结果结合进行探讨。结果表明,社会发展、经济投资、农业科技进步及人口因素对耕地利用变化产生很大影响,并据此提出西宁市合理利用保护耕地的建议。

Study on the Changes and Their Driving Forces of Cultivated Land Use in Xining City

With cultivated land in Xining City as the research subject,using Delphi method,correlation analysis and principle component analysis method,the quantitatively analysis on social,economic and agriculture driving forces related to cultivated land variation during 2000-2008 was conducted,the results were compared with former researches for further discussion.The results showed that social development,economic investment,agriculture scientific improvement and human factors are the main influencing factors for cultivated land use variation.On the basis of this,several suggestions for proper utilization and protection of arable land in Xining City were put forward.