我国马铃薯主产区比较优势及发展趋势研究

随着国家提出马铃薯主粮化战略,马铃薯在保障国家粮食安全中的地位不断提高。运用综合比较优势指数法和灰色系统预测模型,对马铃薯主产区的比较优势及其变化趋势进行分析。结果显示:西北、西南地区是我国马铃薯生产最具综合比较优势的区域,种植主要集中在西南、西北和东北三大区域,重心逐步从东北、西北向西南地区转移,各马铃薯种植区域已形成各具特色的栽培模式;西北、西南和东北三个地区的马铃薯生产综合比较优势较高;经过GM(1,1)模型的预测发现,未来10年马铃薯生产优势区将进一步向西南、西北地区集中,我国马铃薯生产比较优势区个数也将增加。

Studies on Comparative Advantage and Developing Tendency of Major Potato Producing Areas in China

Along with China taking the strategy of developing potato as a stable food, potatos role in assuring Chinas food security has been continuously upgraded. This paper analyzed the regional distribution features and comparative advantages of potato using the comprehensive comparative advantage index method and grey system prediction model. The results indicated that northwest and southwest regions were the regions with comprehensive comparative advantages for potato production in China, and potato mainly grew in northwest, southwest and northeast regions, but the production center was gradually transferred from northwest and northeast to southwest region. And each region had formed its own unique cultivation pattern. The comprehensive comparative advantage of potato production in northwest, northeast and southwest regions were rather high. Using GM (1.1) model, the advantage areas for potato production was predicted to be further concentrated to northwest and southwest regions, and the number of potato production region with comparative advantage in China would be increased within the coming 10 years.