长沙市耕地变化的时空特征及其驱动力分析

为了更好地利用与保护好有限的耕地资源，实现区域经济与生态环境的可持续发展，以长沙市1998-2009年土地利用变更调查数据及相关的社会经济统计资料为基础，分析长沙市近12年来耕地资源变化的时空特点，并运用主成分分析法对长沙市耕地变化的驱动因子进行研究。结果表明，经济发展、人口增长、农业科技进步是影响长沙市耕地数量变化的3大驱动力，其中经济发展因素是最为重要的因素。通过研究发现，12年来长沙市耕地面积和人均耕地面积大幅度锐减，人地矛盾日益突出，且耕地变化的区域差异明显。

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics and Driving Forces of Cultivated Land in Changsha City

In order to better use and protect the limited cultivated land resources and realize the sustainable development of regional economic and ecological environment, based on the data of cultivated land and economic development from 1998 to 2009, the temporal and spatial change characteristics of cultivated land in Changsha City was analyzed. The driving forces which caused the variation were also studied through the method of principal component. The three important driving forces included economic development, population growth, and the agricultural technology improvement and the economic factor was the most important one. It was found that the total area and the per capita area of cultivated land significantly reduced in the last 12 years in Changsha City, contradiction between people and land became increasingly outstanding, and regional difference between regions was obvious