基于ARMA模型的河北省农村金融融量问题研究

为了改善河北省农村经济发展的金融环境，促进河北省农村经济的进一步发展，对河北省农村金融融量问题进行了较深入地研究。首先，利用戈德史密斯理论测算了河北省农村金融的理论融量和实际融量，得出河北省农村存在巨大的金融缺口；其次，利用计量经济学方法中的ARMA模型对金融缺口的变化趋势进行预测，得出河北省农村金融缺口存在不断扩大的趋势。在此基础上，深入分析了河北省农村金融缺口形成的经济与体制根源，进而提出优化农村金融供给机制、消除金融缺口、完善河北省农村金融环境的对策建议。

The Research on Rural Financial Melts Quantity Problem in Hebei Province Based on the ARMA Model

In order to improve the financial environment of rural economic development and promote the further development of the rural economy in Hebei Province, the study had further researched rural financial melts quantity of Hebei Province. First of all, the author estimated the theoretical and actual capital capacity of rural financial in Hebei Province, the results showed that there was a huge financial gap in the countryside in Hebei Province; Next, and forecasted the changing trends of the financial gap by using the ARMA model of econometric methods, the conclusion was that rural financial gap existed constantly expansion trend. Based on this the author further analyzed the economic and institutional causes of the rural financial gap in Hebei Province, and then, put forward countermeasures and suggestions to improve rural financial supply mechanism, and eliminate the financial gap, perfect rural financial environment in Hebei Province.