全球金融危机中的我国金融业及农业风险分析*

摘要：产业结构的变动是国民经济发展的重要特征，投入产出模型是检验经济中各产业的相互联系，进而分析一个国家或地区的宏观经济运行情况的一种经济数量分析方法。面对全球金融危机，本文运用投入产出表对金融产业与其他产业结构进行关联分析是深刻揭示金融产业结构内在机理的重要方法。本文选用了中间投入率、影响力系数、感应力系数三个指标来分析在全球金融危机中，北京、上海金融业的发展问题。研究发现，金融危机对于中国经济产业的直接冲击不会太大，但是对北京、上海的冲击可能是相对严重的。当前需要注意截断房地产开发业金融业的强烈作用，同时维护农业的发展。关键词：金融危机，投入产出；中间投入率，中国；北京；上海

Analysis on Risk of Financial Industry and Agriculture of China under the Global Financial Crisis

Abstract: The change of industrial structure is an important feature of the development of the economy. Meanwhile, the Input-Output Model is an economic quantitative analysis that examines the co-relations between different industries and analyzes the macro-economic status of a nation or a region. When facing the global financial crisis, to use the Input-Output model in analyzing the relations between financial industry and other industries has become an important method to discover the internal mechanism. This thesis chooses three indicators-intermediate input, influence coefficient and reaction coefficient-to analyze the development of financial industry in Beijing and Shanghai under the global financial crisis. This paper finds that the risk of industries is lower in China but the risks will be higher in Beijing and Shanghai. Agriculture should been maintenance. Key words: Input-output, financial industry, intermediate input, China, Beijing, Shanghai.