气候变化背景下濒危植物梓叶槭在中国适生分布区预测

[目的]分析极小种群濒危植物梓叶槭在中国当代和未来的潜在分布区,揭示未来气候变化条件下梓叶槭的分布动态.[方法]以梓叶槭为研究对象,基于现有的梓叶槭分布位点、气候数据集和海拔数据,利用优化的MaxEnt模型和GIS技术,模拟当前、2050s(2041-2060年)和2090s(2081-2100年)(SSP126、SS...

Prediction of suitable distribution area of the endangered plant Acer catalpifolium under the background of climate change in China

  Objective  This paper aims to analyze the potential distribution areas of extremely small population of endangered plant Acer catalpifolium in China today and in the future, reveal the distribution dynamics of A. catalpifolium under future climate change.  Method  Taking A. catalpifolium as the research object, based on the existing A. catalpifolium distribution sites, climate data and altitude data, using the MaxEnt model and GIS technology to simulate the current, 2050s (2041?2060) and 2090s (2081?2100) (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585) distribution pattern of A. catalpifolium under climate scenarios, classify the fitness level and use the area under the receiver?operating?characteristic curve (ROC) (AUC) to evaluate the accuracy of simulation, analyze the contribution rate of climate variables with the knife-cut method to find out the dominant climate variables that restrict the distribution of A. catalpifolium; compare the geographic distribution of A. catalpifolium under different climatic conditions based on the distribution area ratio (N_a) and the degree of habitat change (N_e) dynamic.  Result  The main suitable areas for A. catalpifolium were distributed in southwestern China. The AUC values of the training set and the test set under the nine climatic scenarios were both greater than 0.995, indicating that the model simulation accuracy was extremely high. The warmest season rainfall, temperature seasonal variation standard deviation and altitude had the highest contribution rates, which were 56.1%, 18.2% and 10.9%, respectively.  Conclusion  Under the background of climate change, A. catalpifolium will lose a large number of highly suitable areas, and the habitat fragmentation will be more serious than the trend. The medium-to-high intensity emission scenario SSP370 has little impact on the potential distribution area of A. catalpifolium. This study can provide a basis for the in-situ and ex-situ conservation of the endangered species of A. catalpifolium.