南县耕地动态变化及其驱动力定量分析

影响耕地数量变化的因素错综复杂,用单一的回归分析法不易得到一个满意的模型。在前人研究的基础上,以湖南省南县为例,首先用主成分分析法选择主要的影响因素,克服多重共线性问题;然后再对选择的因素建立回归模型,从而对影响耕地数量变化因素的影响力进行定量分析,得到南县耕地数量变化驱动力主要有四大类因素:经济发展、人口增长、国家政策和农业集约化。并且指出不能只靠政策手段来解决耕地保护问题,需要通过经济、制度和科技相结合的措施才能实现保护耕地的目标。

Quantitative analysis of dynamic change and its driving force of Nan County arable land

The factors affecting arable land quantity change are complex, and only a single regression analysis is not able to attain a satisfactory model. Based on previous studies, and taking Nan County of Hunan Province as a case, firstly principal component analysis was conducted to choose the major influencing factors to overcome multicollinearity problems; then a regression model for the chosen factors was established, thereby quantitative analysis of the impact of the factors that affected the quantity changes ...