| 灰色预测GM(1,N)模型在赤松毛虫预测预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 温秀军,王振亮,李运朝.灰色预测GM(1,N)模型在赤松毛虫预测预报中的应用[J].河北林果研究,1993(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 温秀军 王振亮 李运朝 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北省林业科学研究所
(温秀军，王振亮)，秦皇岛市林业局(李运朝) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用1983～1989年秦皇岛市赤松毛虫预测预报资料,在应用灰色关联分析的基础上,选择对赤松毛虫发生面积,应防面积,以及越冬幼虫上(下)树始见期、始盛期关联度较大的主导因子,分别建立了赤松毛虫发生面积、应防面积的GM(1,1)、GM(1,N)预测模型,及赤松毛虫越冬幼虫上(下)树始见期、始盛期的GM(1,1)和GM(1,N)模型,并利用实测数值进行了验证。
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| 关 键 词： | 赤松毛虫 灰色GM(1 N)模型 预测预报 |
APPLICATION OF GREY GM(1,N) MODEL FOR FORECASTING DENDROLIMUS SPECTABILIS OCCURENCE |
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| Wen Xiujun Wang Zhenliang.APPLICATION OF GREY GM(1,N) MODEL FOR FORECASTING DENDROLIMUS SPECTABILIS OCCURENCE[J].Hebei Journal of Forestry and Orchard Research,1993(3). |
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| Authors: | Wen Xiujun Wang Zhenliang |
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| Institution: | Wen Xiujun Wang Zhenliang
(Forest Research Institute of Hebei)
Li Yunchao (Forestry Bureau of Qinhuangdao City) |
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| Abstract: | The forecast data of Dendrolimus spectabilis occurence in Qinhuangdao area from 1983 to 1989 were processed by means of Grey corelation analysis to build the Grey GM (1.1) and GM(1,N) models for forecasting attract area,and the area to apply control measures. Also the Grey GM(1.1) and GM(1.N) models were built for forecasting the beginning time to climb up for overwintering or to get down from trees in Spring,and the initiative time of insect breakout. All these models were tested with actual measurements. |
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| Keywords: | Dendrolimus spetabilis Grey GM(1 N) model forecast |
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