基于CA的土地利用动态演变预测研究 |
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引用本文: | 崔旭忠,赵方胤.基于CA的土地利用动态演变预测研究[J].安徽农业科学,2012,40(9). |
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作者姓名: | 崔旭忠 赵方胤 |
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作者单位: | 1. 鲁东大学土木工程学院,山东烟台,264025 2. 山东师范大学人口、资源与环境学院,山东济南,250014 |
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基金项目: | 国家自然科学基金项目(40571119);山东省自然科学基金项目(Y2007E05) |
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摘 要: | 基于元胞自动机的原理,提出了一种从历史地图数据中挖掘状态转换规则,并根据蒙特-卡罗法预测未来时刻单元状态的方法。实例应用表明,利用空间数据挖掘状态转换规则的方法,在模拟土地利用动态演变中具有简单、准确、实时性强等优点,实现了从地图到地图的空间动态预测,其结果与实际大致相符,可以为土地利用规划提供参考。
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关 键 词: | 元胞自动机 状态转换规则提取 空间动态预测 土地利用 |
Forecast of Land Use Dynamics Based on Cellular Automata |
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Abstract: | Based on the principles of cellular automata,this paper brings up a new method that mines the state change rules from historical map data and then forecasts the further state of a certain time point according to the predication method of Monte-Carlo.As indicated by the example application,the method of mining the state change rules by the spatial data is simple,accurate and real-time in simulation of the land use evolution,the method realizes the spatial dynamic forecast from map to map,and its results coincide with the reality and can be provided as a reference for land use planning. |
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Keywords: | Cellular automata Extraction of state transition rules Spatial dynamic forecast Land use |
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