| 小波时间序列在电离层TEC预报中的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 夏明清,詹煜. 小波时间序列在电离层TEC预报中的应用[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2012, 40(11): 6702-6703 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 夏明清 詹煜 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学数理学院空间天气学,江苏南京,210044 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 将小波时间序列应用到电离层TEC的预测中,通过小波分解将逐天的TEC数据分解到小波频率通道上,得到对应于小波频率的小波系数列。对系数列作降噪处理并进行数学变换最终使数据趋于平稳,并进行时间序列模型预测,还原成系数列的预测值,最后还原成实际预测值。采用小波时间序列预测后5天480个样本点,准确率在80%以上占87%,90%以上占57%,相较于传统预测模型有较明显的提高。
|
| 关 键 词： | 时间序列分析 TEC预测 ARMA模型 小波分析 |
The Application of Wavelet Analysis and Time Series in Ionosphere TEC Forecasting |
| |
| Affiliation: | XIA Ming-qing et al(Space Weather of Mathematics and Physics,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210044) |
| |
| Abstract: | The wavelet analysis and times series were applied for ionosphere TEC forecasting,TEC data was decomposed on wavelet frequency channel by wavelet decomposition,the discrete wavelet coefficients correspond to wavelet frequency were obtained.De-noise processing and mathematical transformation was used to get stable data.By time series prediction,predictive value was got.Finally,practical predicting results were obtained.Five days with 480 sample points were predicted in wavelet analysis and times series,the accuracies with 80% and 90% were accounted for 87% and 57%,respectively,compared to traditional prediction model,the accuracy was greatly improved. |
| |
| Keywords: | Time series analysis TEC forecasting ARMA model Wavelet analysis |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
