武冈市7～9月日最高气温精细化预报方法研究

[目的]对武冈市7～9月日最高气温精细化预报方法进行研究。[方法]利用2009～2010年T213和欧洲中心ECMWF模式产品及相应时段内测站的日最高气温,用多因子相似预报方法动态优选预报样本,采用多元回归多模式集成MOS方法,经动态地订正模式误差和回归误差后,得出动态预报方程,制作24～120 h武冈市7～9月日最高气温预报。[结果]经样本优选、误差订正得到的武冈市7～9月日最高气温方程,经多次随机抽样,并做F检验,可通过显著水平为0.1的检验。[结论]这种方法具有预报模式中外结合、充分利用多个模式的有用信息、吸取各自的优点,考虑本地局部环境因素,减少模式误差和回归误差,利于提高预报精度的优点。

Study on Refined Forecast Method of Daily Maximum Temperature in Wugang City from July to September

[Objective]The aim was to study the refined forecast method of daily highest temperature in Wugang City from July to September.[Method]By dint of ECMWF mode product and T231 in 2009 and 2010 and daily maximum temperature in the station in corresponding period,multi-factors similar forecast method to select forecast sample,multivariate regression multi-mode integration MOS method,after dynamic corrected mode error and regression error,dynamic forecast equation was concluded to formulate the daily maximum temperature forecast in 24-120 h in Wugang City from July to September.[Result]Through selection,error correction,the daily maximum temperature equation in Wugang City from July to September was concluded.Through multiple random sampling,F test was made to pass test with significant test of 0.1.[Conclusion]The method integrated domestic and foreign forecast mode,made full use of useful information of many modes,absorbed each others advantages,considered local regional environment,lessen mode and regression error,and improved forecast accuracy.