| 基于新信息优先的新疆棉花产量预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 晁增福,邢小宁. 基于新信息优先的新疆棉花产量预测模型[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2012, 40(8): 5022-5023 |
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| 作者姓名： | 晁增福 邢小宁 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 塔里木大学信息工程学院,新疆阿拉尔,843300
2. 塔里木大学水利与建筑工程学院,新疆阿拉尔,843300 |
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| 基金项目： | 塔里木大学高等教育教学研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据灰色系统理论的新信息优先原理,对GM(1,1)模型进行了改进,提出了一种基于新信息优先的GM(1,1)模型,并结合实际情况分析了GM(1,1)模型和基于新信息优先的GM(1,1)模型的预测结果,残差检验和后验差检验结果表明,所建模型比GM(1,1)模型精度高,具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。
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| 关 键 词： | GM(1,1)模型 灰色系统 棉花产量 |
The Prediction Model of the Cotton Output in Xinjiang Based on the Principle of New Information Priority |
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| Affiliation: | CHAO Zeng-fu et al(College of Information Engineering,Tarim University,Alar,Xinjiang 843300) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the principle of new information priority in the grey system theory,the GM(1,1) model was improved,thereby,the new GM(1,1) model based on new information priority was proposed,and combining with the actual situation,the forecast results of GM(1,1) model and new GM(1,1) model were analyzed,the precision test of residual error examination and posterior difference examination showed that the new model has higher precision than GM(1,1) model,and has important theoretical value and practical significance. |
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| Keywords: | GM(1,1)model Gray system Cotton output |
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