| 基于系统动力学和联合分析法的中国紧凑型电动车市场前景研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 马钧,温志欣. 基于系统动力学和联合分析法的中国紧凑型电动车市场前景研究[J]. 农业装备与车辆工程, 2012, 50(6): 12-15,27 |
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| 作者姓名： | 马钧 温志欣 |
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| 作者单位： | 201804上海,同济大学汽车学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 紧凑型电动车市场的发展水平受到产品技术成熟度、基础设施覆盖率、汽油价格波动和消费者产品接受度等多方面因素的影响。本文应用系统动力学的思想,对我国紧凑型电动车市场的发展机制进行了研究,建立了包含上述影响因素系统动力学模型,并进一步借助基于联合分析法的调研,将消费者观点融入其中。在此基础上对其未来10年的市场发展前景进行了预测研究。
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| 关 键 词： | 系统动力学 联合分析法 紧凑型电动车 市场预测 |
Market Forecast of Compact Electric Vehicle in China Based on System Dynamic and Conjoint Analysis |
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| MA Jun , WEN Zhi-xin. Market Forecast of Compact Electric Vehicle in China Based on System Dynamic and Conjoint Analysis[J]. Agricultural Equipment & Vehicle Engineering, 2012, 50(6): 12-15,27 |
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| Authors: | MA Jun WEN Zhi-xin |
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| Affiliation: | (College of Automotive Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai City 201804, China) |
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| Abstract: | The development of compact electric vehicle market is influenced by various factors, such as the product technique mature degree, fundamental equipment coverage, gasoline price fluctuation and consumer acceptance of the product. In this paper, the theory of system dynamic is used to study the development system of compact EV market in China, system dynamic model is established integrating the above mentioned influencing factors, as well as consumers’ views based on conjoint analysis method. On this basis, the market development forecast in 10 years is researched. |
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| Keywords: | system dynamic conjoint analysis compact electric vehicle market forecast |
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