伊犁河流域水资源承载力的综合评价

水资源承载力是关系到一个地区经济可持续发展和群众生活的主要物质基础之一,其平衡与否关系到地区总体规划能否完成。能否合理的利用水资源承载力,使水资源持续利用,是达到地区社会、经济和生态环境不断优化的关键。本文运用模糊综合评价的水资源承载力评价方法,选取了人均水资源可利用量、人均实际供水量、水资源利用率、耕地灌溉率、供水模数、需水模数、生活用水定额、生态用水率等8个主要因素作为评价因素,综合评价了伊犁河流域现状和不同水平年的水资源承载力。结果表明:目前伊犁河流域水资源已达一定规模,但其开发的潜力还比较大。但是随着社会经济的发展,水资源供需矛盾突出,其水资源承载力不断下降,最后提出了提高水资源承载力的途径。

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Yili Rive

Water resource carrying capacity is one of the physical bases relating to the development of the economy and people life.In this paper according to the actual condition of the water resources in Yili river and the status of the water resource supply-demand,selecting some evaluation factors such as available water resource per capita,practical water supply per capita,efficiency of water resources,irrigation ratio of arable land,water supply modulus,water demand modulus,quota of living water use and ecological water use ratio,using the Fuzzy-based evaluation of water resources,the water carrying capacity was evaluated on the status and different level years.The results of the evaluation showed that: at present the development and exploration of the water resources has been a certain degree,but the latent of the development was high.But as to the socioeconomic development,there would exist a serious conflict between water supply and water demand,and the water resource carrying capacity would decline.At last,some methods of improving the water resource carrying capacity were put forward.