黑龙江省暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划

以黑龙江省81个气象台站1961-2008年的逐日降水数据、社会经济资料、地理信息数据以及灾情数据为基础,运用GIS技术,对黑龙江省暴雨洪涝灾害的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性等评价因子进行综合分析,采用加权综合分析法以及GIS中自然断点分级法,构建了暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估模型,将黑龙江省划分为高、次高、中等、次低和低5个等级风险区.结果表明,黑龙江省暴雨洪涝灾害风险呈“东西高-南北低”的分布,松嫩平原大部、三江平原北部和南部地区处于高-次高风险区,哈尔滨西北部、大庆东南部、绥化北部和西部以及鹤岗中部地区,属于高风险区；而大兴安岭地区和东南半山区处于低-次低风险区,发生暴雨洪涝灾害的几率较低.灾情验证结果表明,实际灾情的高值-次高值分布与风险区划结果基本符合,风险区划模型具有较高的实际应用价值和研究意义.

Risk Zoning of Flood and Waterlog in Heilongjiang Province

Based on daily precipitation date, socio -economic data, GIS data and historical disaster data, the authors analyzed the fatalness of disaster - inducing factors, sensitivity of disaster - forming environments and vulnerability of disaster- bearing bodies by using GIS method. Then the model of risking valuation was built with the method of weighted synthesis evaluation and natural breakpoint classification method of GIS. Risk zoning charts of flood and waterlog in Heilongjiang province was painted and was divided into five hierarchies： high, less high, medium, less low and low. The results showed that risk of flood and waterlog presented high in the east and west areas but low in the north and south. Most area of Songnen plain, north and south of Sanjiang plain and the central of Hegang belonged to high risking zone, especially north - west of Haerbin, south - east of Daqing, north and west of Suihua, the central of Hegang. Daxinganling area and southeast semi mountainous belonged to low - less low risking zone and where the probability of occurrence also low. Actual disaster results were matched with risking zone, especially the distribution of high low high areas.