新疆农民增收潜力研究

为了测算在一定的生产力水平、种养规模等条件下新疆农民的增收潜力,利用Lingo软件建立线性规划模型,对新疆种植业、林果业、畜牧业进行结构优化,分析预测农业生产经营产值;再通过回归分析测算未来农民生产经营收入,从而确定农民的增收空间。结果表明,新疆农民纯收入将达到12 550元,较2010年增加7 907元。其中,农民农业生产经营收入预计可达到8 056元,占农民纯收入的71.33%。农业生产经营收入增长4 744元,对农民收入增长的贡献为64.19%。通过农业结构调整,新疆农业内部还具有一定的增收空间,这将是今后挖潜农民增收潜力的重要途径之一。

On Farmers Income Increasing Potential in Xinjiang

In order to measure farmers’ income increasing potential in Xinjiang at a certain level of productivity,raising conditions,using Lingo software to establish linear regression model,planting,horticulture,animal husbandry structure was optimized,agriculture production output value was analyzed and predicted.The regression analysis was conducted to measure the space of peasants income increasing in the future.The results showed that the net income of farmers in Xinjiang will reach 12 550 yuan in 2020,increased 7 907 yuan than that in 2010.Among them,the farmers’ agricultural production and operation income is expected to reach 8056 yuan,accounting for 71.33% of the net income of farmers.Production and operation income is 4 744 yuan,contributing 64.19% to farmers income increasing.Agriculture structure adjustment is one of the important ways of farmers’ income increasing.