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| 森林资源蓄积量预测技术初探 | |
| 引用本文： | 孔令孜,张怀清,陈永富,赵天忠. 森林资源蓄积量预测技术初探[J]. 林业科学研究, 2008, 21(Z1): 91-94 |
| 作者姓名： | 孔令孜 张怀清 陈永富 赵天忠 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国林业科学研究院资源信息研究所,北京,100091;北京林业大学信息学院,北京,100083 2. 中国林业科学研究院资源信息研究所,北京,100091 3. 北京林业大学信息学院,北京,100083 |
| 基金项目： | 中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目，国家科技支撑重点项目课题 |
| 摘 要： | 以福建省三明市森林资源二类调查资料为基础数据,采用VB编程语言,自主开发了森林资源蓄积量预测系统,用GM(1,1)模型、复利公式和BP人工神经网络模型分别对森林资源蓄积量进行宏观预测.3种方法的预测结果显示:BP人工神经网络模型拟合效果较好,其次是灰色系统模型,平均相对误差最大的是复利公式.最后分析了3种方法的优劣,探讨进一步优化的方法. |
| 关 键 词： | 信息管理系统 蓄积量预测 GM(1,1)模型 BP算法 复利公式 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-12-10 |
Research on the Technology of Forest Volume Prediction |
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| KONG Ling-zi,ZHANG Huai-qing,CHEN Yong-fu and ZHAO Tian-zhong. Research on the Technology of Forest Volume Prediction[J]. Forest Research, 2008, 21(Z1): 91-94 | |
| Authors: | KONG Ling-zi ZHANG Huai-qing CHEN Yong-fu ZHAO Tian-zhong |
| Abstract: | The self-development system of forest growing-stock prediction is based on VB p latform. It uses GM (1, 1)model, compound interest formula and BP artifical neural network model to make macroscop ic forecasting of forestgrowing-stock respectively on the basis of management inventory data of forest resources of Sanming, FujianProvince. The forecasting result of three methods showed that BP artificial neural network model is fitted the best,followed by the Grey model, and the compound interest formula had the largest average relative error . Finally thispaper analyzes the p ros and cons of the three methods and exp lores further op timization method. |
| Keywords: | information management system forest volume p rediction GM ( 1, 1) model BP algorithm compoundinterest formula |
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