Responses of cycads with different life histories to the impact of plant collecting: simulation models to determine important life history stages and population recovery times

Collection of plants and seeds from wild populations threatens a large number of cycad species. We investigated to what extent individual life history stages contribute to population growth (λ) and compared two species with major differences in life histories in the African genus Encephalartos: Encephalartos cycadifolius, a highly persistent grassland species that resprouts after fire, and Encephalartos villosus, a relatively fast growing, non-sprouting forest species. Several harvesting scenarios impacting different sized individuals were simulated to determine the sensitivity of the two functional types to harvesting. In both species λ was most sensitive to changes in abundance of adult plants. The harvesting of seeds had minimal impact on population growth rates, whereas harvesting of adult plants led to rapid population decline. This response from two very different functional types suggests that the conservation of adult plants is critical for all cycad species. Despite similar responses to adult mortality, the two species had substantially different population growth rates. This determined recovery time after harvesting of adult individuals. Encephalartos cycadifolius is typical of highly persistent plant species associated with low levels of recruitment and unable to recover from even small losses of adults within a reasonable conservation time frame (<100 years). Our results suggest that the ability to recover from loss of individuals is an important factor that should be considered when assessing the vulnerability of wild populations to threats.