我国森林火灾与气温、降水的关系及其时空差异研究

目的]从区域的角度来探讨森林火灾与气温和降水的关系。方法]首先通过耦合站点气象数据、我国森林分布数据以及我国森林火灾季节月份分布数据,获得了气温和降水在每个省森林区域火灾季节时间段内的平均值。然后,通过时间序列分析、相关性分析等方法探讨降水、气温与森林火灾面积的关系。结果]降水和气温的变化能够较好地反映火灾面积的年际变化。降水减少的同时温度升高以及降水升高的同时温度降低与火灾面积的增、减存在的较好的同步关系,且在不同地区、不同时间这种伴随关系有差异。对不同地区森林区域平均气温、降水与火灾面积的相关性分析发现,大多数地区森林火灾面积与气温具有较好的正相关关系,例如西北地区（R=0.367,P=0.01）、西南地区（R=0.327,P=0.02）、华南地区（R=0.330,P=0.02）、华东地区（R=0.516,P〈0.01）、新疆地区（R=0.447,P=0.042）都表现出显著的正相关关系;而降水与火灾面积除了在西北地区存在正相关关系（R=0.482,P〈0.01）、在华南地区存在负相关（R=-0.323,P=0.03）之外,在其他地区不存在显著相关关系。结论]揭示我国森林火灾与气温、降水关系对于开展森林防火以及火灾预警都具有重要意义。

Study on the Relationship among Forest Fire,Temperature and Precipitation and Its Spatial-temporal Variability in China

Objective] The aim was to discuss the relationship between forest fire and meterological elements (precipitation and temprature) in each region of China.Method] Firstly,the average precipitation and temperature in forest area of each province in fire season were obtained based on meterological data,forest distribution data,seasonal and monthly data of forest fire in China.Secondly,the relationship among forest fire area,precipitation and temperature was discussed through temporal and correlation analysis.Result] The changes of precipitation and temperature with time could reflect the annual variation of fire area well.Forest fire area went up with the decrease of precipitation and increase of temprature,and visa versa.Meanwhile,there existed diffirences in the relationship in various regions over time.Correlation analyses revealed that there was positive correlation between forest fire area and temperature,especailly Northwest China (R=0.367,P<0.01),Southwest China (R=0.327,P<0.05),South China (R=0.33,P<0.05),East China (R=0.516,P<0.01) and Xinjiang (R=0.447,P<0.05) with obviously positive correlation.At the same time,the correlation between forest fire area and precipitation was significantly positive in Northwest China (R=0.482,P<0.01),while it was significantly negaive in South China (R=-0.323,P=0.03),but there was no significant correlation in other regions.Conclusion] Relationships between forest fire and meteorological elements (precipitation and temprature) revealed in the study would be useful for fire provention and early warning in China.