南疆地区近41年的温度变化及其对农业生产的影响

选取南疆地区25个气象站点1961~2001年的平均气温数据资料,分析近41a南疆地区≥10℃积温,平均温度年、季变化倾向和周期性变化特征及对农业生产的影响。分析表明:(1)1961~2001年,南疆地区≥10℃积温值增加,变化周期以6a,12a为主,持续天数增多。(2)平均温度呈上升趋势,20世纪90年代为最暖时期。春夏秋三季平均温度上升幅度不大,冬季平均温度上升最显著,对气候变暖贡献最大。平均温度振荡周期以3~4a,8a居多,各季较为一致。(3)≥10℃积温值增加,喜温作物生长期热量资源显著增加。冬季平均温度,尤其是最冷月平均气温的升高,有利于越冬作物种植北界向北扩展,多熟制向北推移,喜温作物面积扩大,复种指数提高。(4)南疆地区冬季气候变暖,冬温偏高,也造成了如冬季农田土壤水分蒸发量增加,易成病虫害,增大防治难度等不利影响。

The Temperature Change and Its Influences on Agricultural Production for the Last 40 Years in the South of Xinjiang

Based on the daily temperature data of 25 experiment stations in the south of xinjiang between 1961 and 2001,the patterns for the temperature changes and the influence of temperature change on agricultural production of southern xinjing for the recent 40 years were analysed.The main results were as follows:(1)The accumulative temperatures above 10℃ remarkably increased from 1961 to 2001,and the 6-year and 12-year change periods were significant.(2) The annual temperature in the southern xinjiang has been increased in a linear way since recent 40 years.The average temperature in winter did rise with the highest range and increased with a higher range than those in spring,summer and autumn.The climatic changes of southern xinjiang resulted from the contributions of the average temperatures in winter.The temperature exists remarkable 3～4-years periodic variation in four seasons.(3) The accumulative temperatures above 10℃ and thermal resource remarkably increased which is favorable for the cotton planting.The increase of average temperatures in winter,especially in the coldest month(January) is helpful for increasing in the Warm-liking crops planting area and overwinter crops moving towrd north beyond their planting boundary.(4)There are some negative impacts of temperature changing of southern xinjiang such as transpiration rate of soil moisture increased in winter,frequently insect pest produced and other problems.