Economic analysis of an outbreak of avian influenza, 1997-1998

OBJECTIVE: To determine economic losses associated with an outbreak of avian influenza in flocks in Pennsylvania during 1997 and 1998. SAMPLE POPULATION: 5 premises containing avian influenza-infected layer, pullet, and turkey flocks. PROCEDURE: Losses incurred before depopulation, those incurred at the time of depopulation, and those that were attributable to depopulation (unrealized loss of income) were evaluated. Results were extrapolated to provide values for all infected flocks. RESULTS: Extrapolating the costs determined on the basis of age and number of birds from the 5 sample flocks to all other flocks infected with nonpathogenic avian influenza H7N2 yielded an estimated total cost to the Pennsylvania poultry industry of $3.5 million. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: The H7N2 virus is not highly pathogenic. If the pathogenicity of the virus does not change, then the poultry industry and state and federal governments will not have severe economic losses for the 1997-1998 outbreak similar to those for the 1983-1984 avian influenza outbreak in Pennsylvania. To decrease the potential for financial losses that could result from future outbreaks of avian influenza, it is essential that the commercial industry and livebird market system be separated via increased use of biosecurity measures.