西藏山南地区自然环境与土地人口承载力研究——以乃东县、琼结县、扎囊县与贡嘎县为例

山南地区是西藏经济较为发达的地区，其土地资源的结构特点制约着当地的社会经济发展，土地生产潜力的实现程度反映了土地资源的利用效率。为揭示西藏山南地区土地利用人口承载力特点，综合分析了西藏山南地区贡嘎、乃东、琼结与扎囊四个县的自然和社会人文环境的区域特征；通过分析土地生产潜力和现实生产力水平，用粮食-经济人口承载力指数来评价和预测四个县在1990年、1995年、2000年、2003年及2010年的粮食、经济人口承载力。结果表明，目前四个县已达到人均粮食400kg，人均产值800元的温饱水平，并预测于2010年，四个县均能达到人均粮食500kg，人均产值1200元的富裕水平。

Research on Human Natural Environment and Land Population Bearing Capacity in Southern Area of Tibet——Taking Counties of Nedong,Chong-gye,Gonggar,Danang as Examples

Shannan region is the relatively developed area of Tibet. Land resources characteristics of Shannan region limit the economic and social development, and land productive potentiality degree reflects its land utilization efficiency. In order to disclose land population bearing capacity characteristics of Shannan region, the regional characteristics of human natural and social environment of Nedong, Chong-gye, Gonggar, Danang counties in southern area of Tibet are systematically analyzed. Based on the analysis of land productive potentialities and actual productivity level, this research estimates and predicts separately grain, economy population bearing capacity of the above four counties by taking graln-economic population bearing capacity index as distinguish criterion in years of 1990, 1995, 2000, 2003 and 2010. The results show that the four counties have achieved the level of solving problem of eating and clothing presently that is 400 kg grain and 800 yuan productive value one person one year, and until the year of 2010 they will achieve the level of richness which is 500 kg grain and 1 200 yuan productive value one person one year.