泡桐属植物育种值预测方法的研究

分别用最佳线性无偏预测和最佳线性预测方法预测了泡桐属植物的育种值。结果表明，根据亲缘相关距阵对育种值的最佳线性无偏预测结果没有显著影响：数据量较大时，可用小区平均值取代单株值，同时也可用最佳线性预测代替最佳线性无偏预测方法预测育种值；预测育种值与真正育种值之间的相关系数与预测育种值之间的方法或误差方差存在极显著的相关关系，可用前者作预测育种值的精度指标。通过比较毛泡桐种源所预测育种值之间的方差和误差方差可以得出：在对研究材料评选时，最佳线性预测比最小平方估算法具有优越性，但当重复数大于5次，每个小区内的植株多于6时，这两种预测方法的精度非常接近。

STUDY ON PREDICTING METHOD OF BREEDING VALUES IN PAULOWNIA

The breeding values of eight Paulownia species were predicted by Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (BLUP) and Best Linear Prediction (BLP), Results showed that there were no significant effects on predicted results of breeding values based on BLUP whether with numerator relationship matrix (NRM) constructed by RFLP of cpDNA or not. If too much data available, breeding values could be predicted utilizing plot means values instead of individual datum or by the BLP instead of BLUP. Correction between the predicted values and the true genetic values was closely related to the variance among the predictions or the error variance of predictions, so the former could be used to indicate the precision of breeding values instead of later two coefficients. By compared variance and error variance among predicted breeding values based on provenance trails of P. tomentosa , BLP was a more reliable method to rank candidates than that of the least squares estimates. However, if repetitions were more than five, and individuals in every plots were over six, the precision of these two methods for breeding values prediction had little difference.