林业科技进步的增资减危效用分析

对林业科技进步与增资减危的关系及结构的分析结果指出,资源的科技实现有两种主要方式,一是通过资源的恢复增长来实现,二是通过资源的减耗增长得以实现。科技的资源行为则以“发展”、“利用”、“保护”和“储备”四种形式存在。据此建立系统动力学模型进行动态仿真。结果表明,由科技水平系数、资源贡献量、贡献率和效益估值指标所表征的增资减危效用是显著的。其中,资源恢复增长方式较资源的减耗增长方式更显著;保护行为增资减危的效用为佳,发展行为其次,利用行为名列第三。

EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS OF FORESTRY SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS IN RESOURCES INCREASE AND ECONO-CRISIS DECREASE ACTIVITIES

The result for analysing the relationship and structure between the forestry scientific and technological progress (FSTP) and forestry resources increase andeconomic crisis decrease finds that there are two kinds of means to increase forestresources by FSTP. One is by recovering forest resources, and the other is by decre-asing forest resources consumption. The study also shows that "development","utilization", "conservation" and "storage" are four kinds of activities in FSTPctivities for forest resources increment. The system dynamical model hasbeen established according to the opinions metioned above, and the conclusionof model analysis points out that the effectiveness of FSTP is obvious whichis indicated by four index value of scientech level coefficiency, contributionto forest resources, investment return rate and benefit evaluation. Of which,the effectiveness of resources increase by refforestation way is much more ob-vious than resources increase by consumpation-control way. Among differentFSP activities, the effectiveness of conservation behaviour is the first, whilethat of development is the second, and utilization is the third.