Risk analysis of the spread of classical swine fever virus through "neighbourhood infections" for different regions in Belgium

Risk factors associated with the occurrence of "neighbourhood infections" Epidemiology of classical swine fever. In: Truszczynski, M. (Ed.), Proceedings of the Workshop on Diagnostic Procedures and Measures to Control Classical Swine Fever in Domestic Pigs and the European Wild Boar. Pulaway, Poland, pp. 119-130] during classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks were examined based on information collected during a CSF-epidemic, which occurred in the East Flanders Province of Belgium in 1994. The only risk factor that was associated with the occurrence of "neighbourhood infections" was a kernel estimation of the intensity of neighbouring herds (P=0.055) Interactive spatial data analysis. Pearson Education Limited, Harlow, Essex], i.e. the higher the kernel estimation, the higher the risk for the occurrence of neighbourhood infections. In a second part of the study, the likelihood for the occurrence of neighbourhood infections within an area with a 1 km radius was predicted for every Belgian pig herd, assuming that the herd was infected with CSF-virus. For the prediction of these likelihoods, the model resulting from the risk assessment was used. Finally, the predicted likelihoods were transformed into a raster map after applying a smoothing technique. As a result, different areas in Belgium of higher or lower risk for CSF-virus spread through "neighbourhood infections" could be identified on the map. The areas in Belgium where CSF-outbreaks including "neighbourhood infections" occurred in the past decades were all predicted by the model to be of high risk.