不同粮食消费模式下西北旱区大型灌区耕地压力分析

利用耕地压力指数模型,计算分析了2010年西北旱区大型灌区不同粮食消费模式下的耕地压力指数、粮食盈余情况及可再承载人口状况。结果表明:在平衡膳食(PH)、初步小康或营养安全(XK)、富裕型(FY)社会三种不同粮食消费模式下,西北旱区97所大型灌区的耕地压力虽差异明显,但整体压力较小,三种模式的平均耕地压力指数(K值)均小于1,人粮关系较为和谐,除保证自身粮食需求外仍有一定的粮食盈余;三种模式下,粮食盈余量为869.19、586.18、41.46万t,可再承载人口数为2698.75、1465.46、75.38万人。

Analysis of the arable pressure on large-scale irrigation areas in the arid regions of northwest China under different food consumption patterns

Based on the arable pressure index (API) model, the APIs of large-scale irrigation areas in arid regions of northwest China were calculated, and the conditions of food supplies and re-carrying population were analyzed under different food consumption patterns. The results showed that the overall APIs were still low, average arable pressure indexes (K values) of three patterns were less than or equal to 1, and the relationship between population and food production was relatively harmonious, although there were obvious differences in APIs of 97 irrigations under different food consumption patterns. In addition to supplying food for self-consumptions, there was still respectable amount of surplus food, which was 869.19, 586.18 and 41.46 ten thousand tons, respectively, under the economic society of balanced diet (PH), a comfortable level of living (XK), and relatively comfortable society (FY). The re-carrying populations were 2698.75, 1465.46, and 75.38 ten thousand people, respectively. The results could be used to provide data and theoretical bases for assessing the status of arable land resources in the northwest arid areas.