Certification of herds as free of Mycobacterium paratuberculosis infection: actual pooled faecal results versus certification model predictions

Dutch dairy herds closed for at least 3 years with no history of paratuberculosis were recruited for a study on herd-certification. One hundred dairy herds were tested for Mycobacterium paratuberculosis at 6-month intervals by pooled faecal culture (five individual animal samples per pool) with solid media. Ninety of the herds completed 9 herd tests and 10 herds dropped out of the study for reasons other than a paratuberculosis diagnosis. Of the 90 herds completing the full study, 61% eventually were found to be M. paratuberculosis-infected. The number of infected herds detected decreased with each round of testing. Assuming that all infected herds had been detected by the ninth herd test, the observed percentage of herds that were truly noninfected (P-free) after each round of testing was calculated. The observed P-free was compared to the predicted P-free based on a previously reported herd-certification model. The P-free predicted by the model was significantly different from the observed P-free. When a single assumption in the model was changed and a diagnostic sensitivity of 40–50% was selected, the predicted P-free closely approximated the observed P-free for the 90 Dutch dairy herds studied. The critical assumption that was changed for Version 2.0 of the model was within-herd infection prevalence for infected but test-negative herds after each round of serial testing. Model Version 1.0 had assumed a 50% decrease in within-herd prevalence but Version 2.0 assumed a stable within-herd prevalence. Culture of pooled faecal samples provides a high-sensitive, high-specific, low-cost test for herd-certification programs.