新疆玛纳斯河流域用水结构演变及其驱动力分析

采用2000—2013年相关统计资料,结合信息熵理论分析玛纳斯河流域用水结构演变特征。将用水系统划分为农业、工业、生活三大类,根据子系统的用水特点,借助灰色关联分析方法量化工业、农业和生活用水变化各因子的关联度,找出主要驱动力因子。结果表明:受单一用水系统的影响,用水结构信息熵增长速度较慢,用水均衡度较低,用水倾斜现象明显。结合关联度发现,气候变暖、ET0的增长以及土地盐碱化是流域农业用水居高不下的内在驱动因子,灌溉面积、棉花播种面积、工业产值、重工业比重的增加以及城市化建设水平是用水增加的主要外在驱动因子,节水灌溉技术的推广、节灌面积的增加以及工业用水效率的提升是缓解流域水资源供需矛盾的润滑剂。

Evolution and Driving Forces of Water Consumption Structure in the Manas River Basin in Xinjiang

In this paper,the evolution and driving forces of water consumption structure in the Manas River Basin were analyzed using the related statistical data during the period of 2000-2013 based on the information entropy theory.The water consumption system in the drainage basin was divided into the farming,industrial and domestic water consumption subsystems.According to the characteristics of the water consumption subsystems,the correlation degrees of industrial,farming and domestic water consumptions were quantified with the gray correlation analysis.The results showed that the farming water consumption was slowly reduced,but its proportion was still high;the industrial and domestic water consumptions were increased.Because of the influence of single water consumption subsystems,the increase of information entropy of water consumption structure was slow,and the balance degree of water consumption was low.The results of correlation degrees revealed that climate warming,increase of ETo and soil salinization or alkalization were the internal driving forces resulting in the high proportion of farming water consumption in the drainage basin,and the external driving factors resulting in the increase of water consumption were the irrigation area,cotton sown area,value of industrial output,increase of the proportion of heavy industry and urbanization.It was considered that the main measures for relieving the supply-demand imbalance of water resources were to popularize water-saving irrigation,enlarge the water-saving irrigation area and promote the efficiency of industrial water consumption.