土地利用变化对农业旱灾影响研究进展与展望

土地利用是人类与自然联系的重要纽带,对自然灾害具有复杂影响。本文从土地利用的3个方面:土地利用格局、土地利用结构和土地利用水平梳理了土地系统与农业旱灾的关系,并总结了研究中常用的5种方法:空间叠加分析方法、统计分析方法、实验方法、作物模型方法和遥感方法的优缺点及实际应用;最后提出采用多尺度、多因子、多种方法相结合的综合定量分析方法是理解土地利用变化对农业旱灾复杂影响的有效手段,并展望提高土地利用数据精度,开发与完善区域作物模型以及整合区域社会经济指标,采用景观尺度上的情景建模,通过多目标的权衡与优化,从不同土地利用类型下的作物品种改良和利用作物模型及统计方法,从多尺度土地利用变化研究其农作物旱灾的关系,找到区域减灾与可持续发展并重的土地利用策略是未来研究的重点。

Progress and Prospect on the Effects of Land Use Change on Agricultural Drought

Land use provides the vital links between human and nature and has a complex impact on natural disasters.In this paper,the relationships between land use change and agricultural drought were sorted out from three aspects:land use pattern,land use structure,and land use intensity,and the advantages and disadvantages of five common methods,i.e.the spatial overlaying analysis,statistical analysis,field experiments,crop simulation models and remote sensing methods,were summarized.It was claimed to deepen the understanding of the complicated relationships between land use change and agricultural drought,and to carry out a comprehensive research on all the three aspects of land use by combining several methods at multiple levels.Finally,it was put forward to focus on the study of improving the quality of land use data,developing and perfecting the regional crop models,integrating the regional socio-economic indicators into the models,developing the landscape scenarios to coordinate the multiple targets,improving the crop varieties under different land use types,and using the crop model and statistical method from multiple scales to research the relationship between land use change and crop drought so as to achieve the best tradeoff between regional disaster reduction and sustainable development.