阿克苏河灌区种植结构动态变化与驱动力分析

在对研究区进行系统全面调查的基础上,划分了7类一级景观要素和19类二级景观要素,基于Landsat卫星遥感影像获得了1998年、2002年、2006年、2010年和2014年共5期解译结果,选取了8个景观指数,分别在阿克苏河灌区土地利用现状特征分析、种植结构动态变化分析和驱动力分析三个方面开展研究。研究结果表明:(1)2014年,灌区耕地面积58.59万hm2,占灌区土地总面积的26.51%,主要作物品种为棉花、水稻、小麦、玉米和马铃薯;园地面积30.07万hm2,占灌区总面积的13.60%,主要经济林品种为核桃、枣、苹果和葡萄。(2)1998—2014年间,林地、其它土地和水域的面积变化相对不大,园地、住宅用地、草地和耕地的面积变化则较大。其中,水稻和马铃薯耕种面积有所减少,分别减少了25.5%和1.7%,枣、苹果、核桃、小麦、玉米和棉花耕种面积则有所增加,分别增加了382.3%,150.4%,110.3%,232.8%,139.7%和29.0%。(3)受到近年来高强度、大范围的垦荒和集约化产业发展的影响,各类种植作物和植被的斑块面积逐渐减小,离散化程度提高,景观破碎化程度加剧。(4)导致阿克苏河灌区种植结构动态变化的主要驱动力因子是经济和产业发展、人口变化等社会经济因素,自然驱动力则发挥较为稳定的累积效应。

Study on dynamic change of plantation structure and its driving forces in Akesu River Irrigation Area

Akesu River Irrigation Area,based on a comprehensive survey on the agriculture and fruit industry,was classified into 7 landscape elements at the first level and 19 landscape elements at the second level.According to the result of the year 1998,2002,2006,2010,and 2014 obtained from the remote sensing images of Landsat and 8 selected landscape indexes,the research was carried out in the following aspects:characteristic analysis on the land use status,dynamic change of plantation structure and its driving forces.The results show:(1) In the year of 2014,the cultivated area 585852 hm2,accounted for 26.51％ of total area,where the main types of crop were cotton,rice,winter wheat,com and potato;the garden area 300659 hm2,accounted for 13.60％ of total area,where the main types of fruits were walnut,jujube,apple and grape.(2) The area of forest land,other lands and water didn't change much between 1998 and 2014,in contrast,the area of garden,residential land,grassland and cultivated land changed more,where the area of rice and potato decreased,and the area of jujube,apple,walnut,winter wheat,com and cotton increased.(3) The patch area of crop vegetation of cultivated land and fruit forest gradually decreased which was affected by the large range of reclaiming wasteland and intensive industry development,and the trend of fragmentation intensified.(4) The main driving forces of the changes were economic development and the population change,and the natural driving forces showed a steady cumulative effect.