Modeling Forest Owner Harvesting Behaviour and Future Intentions in Tasmania

Our ability to design public policies that effectively promote the efficient use of privately owned forest resources is underpinned by an understanding of the way in which forest production and investment decisions are made, and of how forest owners respond to changes in social, economic, and institutional conditions. A model of non-industrial private forest owners (NIPF) past harvesting behaviour and future harvesting intentions using a logit approach is presented. A Tobit model, which investigates harvesting intensity, is also developed. The responses to a survey of 386 NIPF owners in Tasmania are used to construct the data set consisting of socio-economic characteristics of NIPF owners, their forest ownership objectives, and property characteristics. The current study is innovative in that the role of NIPF owner objectives and attitudes is assessed in three econometric models exploring past harvesting behaviour, harvesting intensity, and future harvesting intentions. A series of observations can be made from comparing the results of the three models. For example, higher pulp prices are unlikely to affect NIPF owners harvesting intentions but are likely to increase harvesting intensity. The financial characteristics of the NIPF owner contribute most to predicting future harvesting intentions, with financial security being a disincentive to future harvesting. Landowner objectives and attitudes are important in explaining past harvesting activities and future intentions but do not significantly affect harvesting intensity. Furthermore, there are significant differences between different types of landowners in terms of the incentives that are likely to make them change their mind about participating in native forest harvesting.