| 黑龙江省建三江农场自然灾害变化预测模型的建立 |
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| 引用本文： | 孟军,杨广林.黑龙江省建三江农场自然灾害变化预测模型的建立[J].东北农业大学学报,2003,34(3):330-333. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孟军 杨广林 |
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| 作者单位： | 东北农业大学理学院,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150030 |
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| 摘 要： | 以线性模型拟合发展趋势 ,正弦函数拟合周期变化 ,马尔可夫链拟合随机扰动 ,建立了黑龙江省建三江农场灾害变化的预测模型 ,应用此模型可以对建三江农场的自然灾害进行预测 ,预测效果要好于传统的单一模型法
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| 关 键 词： | 建三江农场 自然灾害 预测模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-9369(2003)03-0330-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年9月1日 |
The establishing of the prediction model for natural disaster changing in Jiansanjiang farm in Heilongjiang Province |
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| MENG Jun,YANG Guang-lin.The establishing of the prediction model for natural disaster changing in Jiansanjiang farm in Heilongjiang Province[J].Journal of Northeast Agricultural University,2003,34(3):330-333. |
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| Authors: | MENG Jun YANG Guang-lin |
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| Abstract: | In this paper the integrated model of natural disaster prediction is established in JianSanjiang farm in Heilongjiang Province,in which linear model is used to simulate the trend ,sine curve to simulate the cyclical change and Markon chain to simulate random disturbance.The model is applied to predict the destroyed area by natural desaster in JianSanjiang farm;the result of prediction is better than the traditional single prediction models. |
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| Keywords: | JianSanjiang farm natural disaster prediction model |
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