多模型自适应综合预报方法及其应用

文章依据粮食产量演变规律,提出一种多模型自适应综合预报方法。预报系统由几个并行的自适应预报器组成,最终结果由准确度判别器择优决定。特殊情况,利用专家经验来修正。该法适用于系统具有阶跃性结构变化和时变参数的动态过程。在某省粮食产量预报中,应用此法获得了良好的效果。

Multi-model adaptive comprehensive prediction method and its application

Based on the evolutionlaw of grain production yield to set up a multi-model adaptive comprehensive prediction methods. The prediction system is consisted of some parallel adaptive predictors, and the final results are decided by checker. In special circumstances, the results need to fix by experts. This method applies to the system with a step structure change and dynamic process of timevarying parameters. The apphcation of this method obtained good results forecasting grain production yield of Heilongjiang...